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Oct 31, 2012
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where the average poll has obama up by 2, 2 1/2, 3 points in ohio. you go back through history, how candidates overcome leads like, that it's actually pretty hard. a small lead, but when you have so few undecided voters left, a third of the state already voted and turned out, it's pretty challenging right now and that's romney's biggest hurdle, entirely ohio. >> you've been described as a potential one-term celebrity pollster. how did you react? you are a bit of a rising superstar. but of course if you get it wrong you've got obama 75% chance of winning. if he was to lose now, lu resign? what happens to pollster experts like you? >> well, this is why we give probabilities. earlier this week there was a weather forecast lower said there was a 30% chance that hurricane sandy would be bad enough to flood the new york subway system. now, to me that seems look a very prescient prediction where he warned people days in advance there was a chance of this occurring. we give mitt romney a 38% chance of becoming president as new york this week. . a 30% chance
where the average poll has obama up by 2, 2 1/2, 3 points in ohio. you go back through history, how candidates overcome leads like, that it's actually pretty hard. a small lead, but when you have so few undecided voters left, a third of the state already voted and turned out, it's pretty challenging right now and that's romney's biggest hurdle, entirely ohio. >> you've been described as a potential one-term celebrity pollster. how did you react? you are a bit of a rising superstar. but of...
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Oct 31, 2012
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in fact i saw a poll right before the storm that had a tie there. i'll tell you what's key, erin, to look at now just a few days left and that is barack obama has not broken 50%. he's down in the 47%, 48%, has been for what the better part of two months now. he can't break that number whether it's ohio or florida or virginia, colorado, and on election day there's a couple things that are going to matter. if you're undecided, those undecides will break for the challengers, that's what's historically known, that's four years they'd already know if they'd be with the president or not. they'll break with the challengers, in addition it's your ground game. we have an amazing ground game, we're going to have our votes out there, the intensity is with us. all the fundamentals of this campaign are with mitt romney and that's because he's the best candidate out there with a great, great deal to offer the american voters. >> thank you very much. we appreciate your time, and next as much as the nation focuses on sandy, the candidates are increasing that focus
in fact i saw a poll right before the storm that had a tie there. i'll tell you what's key, erin, to look at now just a few days left and that is barack obama has not broken 50%. he's down in the 47%, 48%, has been for what the better part of two months now. he can't break that number whether it's ohio or florida or virginia, colorado, and on election day there's a couple things that are going to matter. if you're undecided, those undecides will break for the challengers, that's what's...
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Oct 31, 2012
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and i think obama has an edge in the polls in ohio. >> are you seeing any polls in the last 24 hours which suggest that the hurricane as a disaster, has had any impact yet? >> it's too early to say. a number of the more reputable pollsters suspended their polling. right now, i think we shouldn't make too much of noise. a lot of people are out of power, could have helpful effects, you can't reach people in new york city, for example, democrats and they wouldn't appear in the polls as much. >> thank you very much. >> thank you. >>> up next, where the superstorm is heading next. a massive amount of snow in west virginia. a storm chaser joins us with the latest. [ male announcer ] behold the joy, bliss and total delight that can only come from having someone else pay your mortgage for an entire year... this is what you'll experience if you win the quicken loans skip-a-year mortgage sweepstakes. up to five winners will get to skip a year of mortgage payments... courtesy of quicken loans. enter often at skipayear.com for more chances to experience...this... the skip-a-year mortgage sweepst
and i think obama has an edge in the polls in ohio. >> are you seeing any polls in the last 24 hours which suggest that the hurricane as a disaster, has had any impact yet? >> it's too early to say. a number of the more reputable pollsters suspended their polling. right now, i think we shouldn't make too much of noise. a lot of people are out of power, could have helpful effects, you can't reach people in new york city, for example, democrats and they wouldn't appear in the polls as...
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Oct 31, 2012
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the new franklin-marshall polls showing president obama with a 49% to 45% edge. it's down from last month. there are some areas in pennsylvania that are critical on the east coast, blue collar workers, that the president needs. what do we make of how this might impact voter turnout, voter enthusiasm, and even people's ability to go to the polls? >> well, i think, as you point out, everything right now comes down to voter turnout. in a state where you see the polls close, what we see is each of the campaigns trying to say, you know, the romney campaign saying, oh, we're making up a lot of ground, we're going to run some ads in pennsylvania, and the obama campaign is saying, oh, come on, you're not going to win pennsylvania. there's a lot of head fake going on there because what you want to get your voters out is a sense of momentum. your vote could make the difference, and we've got the mentum so you need to get out there for us, so what each campaign really needs to do is get up that enthusiasm level to get those voters to the polls in every state. not only it is
the new franklin-marshall polls showing president obama with a 49% to 45% edge. it's down from last month. there are some areas in pennsylvania that are critical on the east coast, blue collar workers, that the president needs. what do we make of how this might impact voter turnout, voter enthusiasm, and even people's ability to go to the polls? >> well, i think, as you point out, everything right now comes down to voter turnout. in a state where you see the polls close, what we see is...
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Oct 31, 2012
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as you know it's a toss-up state with a recent poll showing president obama has an advantage. >>> meantime, vice president biden and mitt romney are in florida. not together, separately. romney's first in tampa, then coral gables and jacksonville. biden will be rallying in sarasota and later in ocala. president obama will stay off the campaign trail for another day. he will, instead, tour storm damage in new jersey. mitt romney is campaigning, but sensitively. it's less than a week before the election. how do candidates balance politics in the face of disaster? during a natural disaster. joining us now is thomas whalen, history professor at boston university, also offering commentary on the current campaign. thank you so much for being with us, thomas. >> my pleasure. >> there is a real danger p in how a president handles a natural disaster because it can sink a presidency, right? >> it could, potentially. what you're really talking about here is the political narrative people have about a particular candidate or president. a natural disaster, at least how presidents respond to them basica
as you know it's a toss-up state with a recent poll showing president obama has an advantage. >>> meantime, vice president biden and mitt romney are in florida. not together, separately. romney's first in tampa, then coral gables and jacksonville. biden will be rallying in sarasota and later in ocala. president obama will stay off the campaign trail for another day. he will, instead, tour storm damage in new jersey. mitt romney is campaigning, but sensitively. it's less than a week...
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Oct 31, 2012
10/12
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that ohio poll, these ohio polls have consistently shown a lead for president obama, anywhere from two to five points. hat does that tell us about what ohio will look like next week? i don't know. but whatever happens there, whatever happens in ohio, will have huge ramifications. we all know ohio is the most important state out of the presidential election turns out. >> it's going to be a very close election by all signs. even though i think president obama has a slight edge, he's slightly ahead as an incumbent you would expect that. but i think it's very important for everybody to go out and vote. >> i'm going to go back to the storm sandy here, and something that's a little controversial that's coming up. and that is global warming. because i'd like both of your perspectives on that. new york governor cuomo suggesting the reason the natural disasters might be the result of climate change. let's listen. >> there has been a series of extreme weather incidents, anyone that's not a political statement, that is a factual statement. anyone who says there's not a dramatic change in weather
that ohio poll, these ohio polls have consistently shown a lead for president obama, anywhere from two to five points. hat does that tell us about what ohio will look like next week? i don't know. but whatever happens there, whatever happens in ohio, will have huge ramifications. we all know ohio is the most important state out of the presidential election turns out. >> it's going to be a very close election by all signs. even though i think president obama has a slight edge, he's...
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Oct 31, 2012
10/12
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you mentioned have obama narrowly up and ohio has always been president obama's firewall. no republican has won the white house without winning ohio. that leaves something sizable good for chicago. there is so much noise around the polls now, the focus is on early voting and the ground game. it is no substitute for actual votes. and that's what folks of both campaigns right now. >> john avalon in the battleground bus tour in ohio. thank you. we'll shift the focus back to the aftermath, the special coverage here in the aftermath of superstorm sandy continues. we're now getting word of some evacuations happening in bellevue hospital. bellevue hospital. we're going to talk to dr. sanjay gupta about this after this quick break. 0 this y. so why exactly should that be of any interest to you? well, in that time there've been some good days. and some difficult ones. but, through it all, we've persevered, supporting some of the biggest ideas in modern history. like the transatlantic cable that connected continents. and the panama canal that made our world a smaller place. we suppo
you mentioned have obama narrowly up and ohio has always been president obama's firewall. no republican has won the white house without winning ohio. that leaves something sizable good for chicago. there is so much noise around the polls now, the focus is on early voting and the ground game. it is no substitute for actual votes. and that's what folks of both campaigns right now. >> john avalon in the battleground bus tour in ohio. thank you. we'll shift the focus back to the aftermath,...
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Oct 31, 2012
10/12
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. >>> president obama heading to new jersey today. brand new polls that john was just mentioning from "the new york times"/cbs quinnipiac polling, virtually tied in florida. look at virginia and in ohio, the president is holding a five-point lead on romney. jen psaki joins us. nice to talk to you. >> good morning, soledad. >> a lot of focus has been taken off the campaign trail as the president focuses on the devastation of superstorm sandy and governor romney, as well, not really campaigning. sort of dealing with the storm aftermath. are you worried when you see some of the those poll numbers, where you see virginia and florida neck and neck? >> the president is out there, doing exactly what the american people elected him to do, which is to manage the country in a state of crisis. for this week, that's hurricane sandy. you've seen him over the past couple of days hunker down in the white house, making calls to mayors and governors, getting briefed by his team. he will be touring the damage with governor christie today. this is a tim
. >>> president obama heading to new jersey today. brand new polls that john was just mentioning from "the new york times"/cbs quinnipiac polling, virtually tied in florida. look at virginia and in ohio, the president is holding a five-point lead on romney. jen psaki joins us. nice to talk to you. >> good morning, soledad. >> a lot of focus has been taken off the campaign trail as the president focuses on the devastation of superstorm sandy and governor romney, as...